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China devalues yuan in a surprise move. No one should have been taken off guard. China is an export driven economy with a currency tethered to the dollar.

Sentiment and positioning have shifted from the DXY being a crowded long to an increasingly crowded short. At the same time yield support remains at the stronge

Tech Continues To Ramp Friday was an amazing day for tech stocks as the Nasdaq increased 2.20%. The Dow rallied a few days ago because big companies within it reported great results. Today was the Nasdaq’s turn as MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN all reported great results. Even companies which didn’t report were in on the…

Tech Continues To Ramp Friday was an amazing day for tech stocks as the Nasdaq increased The Dow rallied a few days ago because big companie

People weren't supposed to be saving this much money — and now it's a problem

We’ll likely hear about how “splendidly” the corporate bond buying program is going.

Short-Volatility Funds Are Being Flooded With Cash - Bloomberg

Short-Volatility Funds Are Being Flooded With Cash

Volatility is extremely low and stocks have relentlessly rallied. The rally has not been even among the indices with the Nasdaq outperforming and the

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is becoming more of a focus than its decision on interest rates. This is because of increased Fed statements on the topic which I will go over in this article. Goldman Sachs is forecasting no changes to the balance sheet until mid-2018. This would be after the new…

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is becoming more of a focus than its decision on interest rates. This is because of increased Fed statements on

In this article, I will discuss two companies moving in the opposite direction. YouTube continues to dominate the online video landscape and Twitter continues to lose ground. Twitter is a disillusioned company which has a base of dedicated users, but no momentum towards accelerated user growth or profitability. YouTube’s profitability isn’t broken down by Alphabet,…

In this article, I will discuss two companies moving in the opposite direction. YouTube continues to dominate the online video landscape and Twitter continues to lose ground. Twitter is a disillusioned company which has a base of dedicated users, but no momentum towards accelerated user growth or profitability. YouTube’s profitability isn’t broken down by Alphabet,…

The key takeaways from the FOMC statement on Wednesday were that rates weren’t raised, the Fed plans to unwind the balance sheet starting in September, and the Fed downgraded its inflation comments as it slowly acknowledges that inflation hasn’t been as strong as it had been claiming it was earlier in the year. It’s interesting…

The key takeaways from the FOMC statement on Wednesday were that rates weren’t raised, the Fed plans to unwind the balance sheet starting in Septemb

My prediction for Fed policy was wrong. As a reminder, I was looking for a dovish hike based on the latest disinflation, but instead the Fed didn’t deviate much from its policy. There was a stark difference between reality and what the Fed spoke about today as the core CPI and the headline CPI missed…

My prediction for Fed policy was wrong. As a reminder, I was looking for a dovish hike based on the latest disinflation, but instead the Fed didn’t

The top news on Tuesday was Yellen’s speech delivered to the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland. The topic of conversation was how badly the Fed has miscalculated inflation. It’s surprising to see this coming up so soon after the Fed’s decision on rates because the Fed was hawkish and this was a dovish speech. At…

The top news on Tuesday was Yellen’s speech delivered to the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland. The topic of conversation w

Can we say with certainty that this cycle will replicate history? No, we can’t. There are no certainties - especially when it comes to capital markets.

Can we say with certainty that this cycle will replicate history? There are no certainties - especially when it comes to capital markets.

No Government Shutdown The deadline for the spending bill was December 22nd. If nothing passed there would be a government shutdown. On Thursday, the government averted this issue as the House passed another short term spending bill which lasts until January 19th. This means there won’t be volatility in the next week, but it also means…

No Government Shutdown The deadline for the spending bill was December If nothing passed there would be a government shutdown. On Thursday,

In this article, I will discuss the findings posted in the IMF’s Global Stability Report and some of the latest economic statistics. The IMF’s report was shocking as it has graphs that look like what economic realists like John Hussman and David Stockman publish. When the bearish narrative leaks into government reports, you know the…

In this article, I will discuss the findings posted in the IMF’s Global Stability Report and some of the latest economic statistics. The IMF’s rep

On Wednesday, the stock market had its worst down day since September 2016. Many headlines claimed the stock market fell because of political controversies involving the firing of FBI director James Comey, but I’m skeptical of that conclusion because the market has ignored this story for days. In Monday’sarticle, I predicted that the VIX would…

On Wednesday, the stock market had its worst down day since September Many headlines claimed the stock market fell because of political controve

Fed’s QET To End Between 2020 & 2022 The chart below brings light to the timetable I’ve been discussing with regards to the Fed’s balance sheet unwind. I stated that it would be unlikely for the ECB to start an unwind before the next recession because its QE program will end in late 2018 or…

Fed’s QET To End Between 2020 & 2022 The chart below brings light to the timetable I’ve been discussing with regards to the Fed’s balance

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